ERM at Thanksgiving – An Illustration of Objective-Centric Risk Management in Action

On occasion, I like to take some of the concepts we risk professionals think about in our jobs and apply them to different personal situations…some of the same concepts we use when working with executives to develop corporate strategy and manage risks or uncertainty around that strategy.

It’s Thanksgiving week in the U.S. – the air is crisp, Fall colors abound, and there is a palatable excitement as we enter the year-end holiday season. This week’s holiday provides a great opportunity to reconnect with family and old friends and take stock of what we’re grateful for.

In honor of one of our country’s greatest traditions, I thought it would be fun to provide a risk management perspective to Thanksgiving…

If you ever get frustrated at a lack of understanding among friends, family and neighbors about what you do, perhaps this little video can help.

Let’s say you want to invite family and close friends to your home.  Intended outcome (a/k/a “objective”): a good Thanksgiving meal and meaningful fellowship.

The first task or activity in pursuit of this objective is to invite who you would like to attend…

Although we consciously don’t call it this, many of us will evaluate a few scenarios in this situation. What if everyone accepts your invitation, or what if no one accepts? These two scenarios are highly unlikely, so what is a realistic scenario? 50 – 75% accept your invitation?

After the invitations are sent (…hopefully at least 2 weeks before the holiday), other action steps that will need to occur to meet the objective include:

  • Clean house
  • Accommodations for overnight guests
  • Enough space, dishes, glasses, and flatware at the dinner table
  • And let’s not forget the food!

 

I’m sure there are other action steps, but you get the idea…

After you’ve identified these action steps, you have to assign ownership.

Perhaps the kids can be responsible for cleaning house while you, your spouse, and some guests focus on the food.

This, of course, brings up an important question in the back of your mind – what are some risks around these action steps and goals? For the purpose of our illustration today, let’s just focus on getting the food prepared and on the table. These risks and considerations can include:

Having food people can’t eat. To address this risk, you need to ask about any food allergies or other dietary restrictions during your planning and preparations. (I have close friends with a semi-strict diet on gluten and dairy for health reasons.)

Having enough food to eat. Try to get an accurate number of guests and coordinate with a loved one to ensure there will be enough. And always add about 10-20% extra for those who like their second helpings or teenagers with the bottomless pit for a stomach!

Safety accident. If your home is in an area with lots of snow/ice, could a slip and fall derail your plans? Have salt to sprinkle on the sidewalks and driveway, keep towels by the front door for wet drops, and a spot for wet shoes and jackets to be placed out of the way. Any accident like this could derail you from achieving the objective of having a fun and relaxing time with family and friends.

Cost. This can have a big impact on your objective. The cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal is thankfully (…no pun intended) down slightly from huge spikes seen in 2021-22, but they are still 19% higher than they were five years ago according to a survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation!!

 

 

Time with family. All this talk about cooking brings up a good question – if you’re in the kitchen all the time, how will you get to spend time with loved ones?

To get around this and have more time to socialize, you can purchase a done-for-you meal from a local restaurant or grocery store, but in some cases, this can double your cost depending on which restaurant you choose. A mid-range option is to get some of the more time-consuming sides and desserts prepared for you, allowing you time with family and friends.

If you choose to cook at home, your risk of an equipment malfunction could derail your plans, or the neighbor’s dogs could rush in and steal your turkey like this scene from the classic movie A Christmas Story (… I hope you can peg the likelihood of this scenario at effectively zero).

Purchasing the meal from elsewhere opens up the risk that the vendor will not be able to deliver for whatever reason. You have to compare these risks against your personal “tolerance” and your priorities (preference for cooking vs. spending time with family) to determine the best route for achieving your objective.

And last but not least, what if people who RSVP do not show or cancel?

These are just a few examples. Of course, as I say often regarding risk management, there are factors that will be specific to your situation.

Keep in mind too that addressing these risks and opportunities doesn’t mean you need to have some formal identification and assessment process. Regardless of any risk management background, we tend to embed some of this thinking into our decision-making before, during, and after.

I hope you have found this video entertaining…and helpful for explaining your work to family and friends.

If you’re traveling this week, please be careful, especially considering that 80 million Americans are expected to travel for this year’s holiday, which exceeds pre-COVID levels according to AAA.

And let’s not forget the weather and how that can impact travel as well…

To everyone reading, regardless of where you are, Happy Thanksgiving! I look forward to spending some quiet time at home with my family over this long weekend. We’ll see you in December.

Happy Thanksgiving graphic from SDS

 

References and Further Reading:

10 Differences Between Traditional and Enterprise Risk Management

4 Questions for Identifying Top Risks for your Company

Enterprise Risk Assessment – Gathering Information to Drive Decision Making

8 Questions for Properly Analyzing and Prioritizing Risks to Objectives

Don’t Let Goals and Initiatives Be Blindsided by External Events

How to Achieve Organizational Goals with Scenario Planning

Using the Circle of Influence Technique to Drive Risk Ownership

Risk Appetite and Tolerance – Which Definitions Do You Use?

Lessons in Personal Risk Tolerance – Hurricane Michael Edition

Thanksgiving Dinner Costs are Down Again

AAA’s 2024 Thanksgiving Travel Forecast

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Meet Carol Williams, SDS Founder & Lead Strategist

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This blog was launched to provide strategy and risk practitioners with a go-to resource to better guide their efforts within their companies. Thank you for bringing me and my team along to be part of your journey towards better risk management, strategic planning and execution, and overall decision-making. Happy reading!

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